Building on its inaugural 2015 report exploring financial volatility experienced by American families, the 12bet官方 研究所 today published new research evaluating incomes and expenditures of six million de-identified accounts over a 75-month period from 2013 and 2018. The research shows that income and spending volatility remained relatively constant during this period, with the average family experiencing significant income swings—spikes or dips of more than 25 percent of their median income—in five months out of the year, despite a period of real wage growth and low unemployment. Families with the median level of volatility experienced a 36 percent change in income month-to-month during the prior year.

这份名为“风化波动”的报告.第0集:指导储蓄的月度压力测试,”  also shows that families need roughly six weeks of take-home income in liquid assets to weather a simultaneous income dip and expenditure spike, though 65 percent of families lack a sufficient cash buffer to do so.

For example, empirically-grounded savings recommendations for middle-age families include:

• 中等收入家庭平均需要5美元,以应付同时发生的收入和支出冲击, 但只有2美元,000, 剩下3美元的差额,000.
• Low-income families need about $2,500, but have $700, leaving a gap of roughly $1,800.
• Families in the highest income quintile need nearly $15,000 in cash buffer. They have, 平均, $9,000, leaving a savings gap of $6,000.

“Despite low unemployment and a sustained period of economic growth, the reality is that most American families continue to experience financial volatility,” Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the 12bet官方 研究所. “The idea of saving three-to-six months of income—a common guidance—may feel unattainable for many families. Understanding the inconsistent cash flow reality for most American families is a critical first step in developing practical, 基于经验的储蓄目标.”

The report upends the conventional wisdom that families are best-positioned by saving a flat percentage of income each month. This savings strategy may actually leave families with an inadequate cash buffer, exacerbating financial distress in months with an income dip and resulting in under-saving during months in which they experience an income spike.

Rather, families should save more aggressively during income spikes. The report shows a strong seasonal pattern of income spikes, 它们往往集中在2月份, 3月, 4月, and December—around end of year bonuses and tax refund time. 12月和3月很可能出现收入飙升, that families have a 30 percent chance of experiencing an income spike in those months. The strong seasonal pattern of income spikes has important implications for designing savings strategies, in that families should aggressively harvest the savings opportunities presented by months with income spikes.

该报告包括六个主要发现:

• 发现1: Income volatility remained relatively constant between 2013 and 2018. 波动中值水平的股票, 平均, experienced a 36 percent change in income month-to-month during the prior year.
• 发现2: There is wide variation in the levels of income volatility families experience, both across families at a given point in time and also for a given family across time.
• 发现3: On average, families experience large income swings in almost five months out of a year. Income spikes are twice as likely as dips and most common in 3月 and December. Families with the most volatile incomes experience swings that are larger but not more frequent than families with less volatile incomes.
• 找到4: Income volatility is greatest amongst the young and the high income. 然而, 下行风险, 以收入下降的幅度和频率来衡量, 是低收入家庭中最大的吗.
• 发现5: The trend of spending volatility was flat between 2013 and 2018. 而支出波动的水平也很高, 这比收入波动率低15%, except among account holders over the age of 75 and those with the largest cash buffers.
• 发现6: Families need roughly six weeks of take-home income in liquid assets to weather a simultaneous income dip and expenditure spike. Sixty-five percent of families lack a sufficient cash buffer to do so.